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| NOAA map-just 12" rise in sea level |
What’s your exit strategy from
Miami? An interesting, and a startling,
question. But this was not asked by
some immigration hardliner, economic disaster prognosticator or because of the
continued over development of the area. Interestingly enough, a local public
official asked this very question during a panel discussion, which was actually
intended to be about what local municipalities were doing on Climate
Resiliency. Despite these fairly strong
opinions of inevitable doom, this official was still taking what actions he
could to ameliorate the affects of climate driven sea level rise in his
city. Problem is, based on his own
projections, these efforts appear to be like putting fingers in the dike at
this stage.
So, what is your exit
strategy due to climate driven sea level rise in Miami? That question at a recent University of
Miami panel discussion certainly got my attention. Another statement made by that same speaker that he was planning
on his house being worth $0 in the not-so-distant future got everyone’s
attention. There was that particular
silence when people aren’t sure how to process something. Now we’re all familiar with people making
exaggerated statements these days.
Using hyperbole for the shock value…or for their own agenda. Surprisingly, the most positive outlook from
this panel actually came from the climate scientist…the one you would typically
expect to shout out that the sky is falling.
My personal belief is that scientists have taken so much heat (no pun
intended) for making dire predictions that they now go out of their way to
temper these.
As the evening went on though, I
realized that the actual data this scientist presented was indeed dire. Predictions from 2016 indicate,
conservatively, that sea level will rise by approximately 15” by 2045. For those keeping score, that’s only 27
years from now…still too far for most people to grasp any direct consequences
for themselves. However, the scientist
pointed out that based on additional research and observations, every subsequent
projection has resulted in this projection to move up in time. Add to that the current US Federal response
(or extreme lack of) and we could be talking about a 12-15 inch rise in the
next 15-20 years. Doesn’t sound like a
lot until you consider that 12” would put 20% of Miami-Dade County under
water! That’s one out of every five
square miles of the County under water! This doesn't even include the areas that would now be considered low lying and prone to flooding (yes, actual 'flooding'...the kind that does drain off, but still bothersome when it starts happening 90-100 times a year!)
Now, when I say under water, its
important to understand, we’re talking permanently under water (ok…just
until the next ice age, but I’m not counting on that any time soon). One of the ‘mistakes’ people are making,
including the speakers at the panel, is confusing the discussion by talking
about flooding. Flooding is the
temporary influx and subsequent drain off of water. Flooding is temporary! In
three days or weeks or months it drains off.
Sea level rise is permanent (see previous disclaimer on the next ice
age)! So, what do you think will happen
when thousands (ten of thousands?) of homes in Miami-Dade County become flooded
or surrounded by flood waters and/or cannot be accessed by road anymore? And this will be not only in southeastern
and southwestern parts of the County, but also on western parts of Miami Beach
and Miami-Dade, as well as parts of Broward County. Do you think anyone will notice?
Like maybe the banks?
Homebuyers? Do you honestly
believe that someone will put their money into a home or lend money on a home
just a few miles from these inundated areas?
However, the critical point won’t
necessarily be 15-20 years away either.
Long before that, the combination of sea level rise, high tides and
storm surge could give us a shock that Hurricane Irma (and Superstorm Sandy for
that matter) only hinted it. Miami-Dade
home prices, according to this same individual, are already showing signs that
buyers are pricing in the affects of Climate Driven Events into the market.
Think this is crazy talk…that there’s no proof of sea level rise impacts
yet? Well you only have to look at the
current situation on Miami Beach as an example. Or at the frantic pumping that took place by South Florida Water
Management to bring down the canal levels after the abnormally high rains last
fall. Areas of Miami Beach are flooding
regularly just at high tides now.
Certain roads are all but impassable during moderate rainstorms. And that’s with only a rise of a few
inches. There are homes around the
Inter-Coastal Waterway that are literally just inches above normal high tides
now! All you need to do is look at the
interactive NOAA sea level rise charts to see how much of the County is
impacted at different heights to visually experience the impending threat.
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| NOAA map-24" rise in sea level |
Sounds pretty bleak…and the
outcome on this trajectory are certainly fatal to Miami-Dade. However, there is one possible
alternative. Civic leaders and climate
scientists DO need to start spreading this dire warning! The citizens of Miami-Dade and South Florida
are at ground zero for the US impact of Climate Driven Events. They have the most to lose…but that means
they also have the most to gain if we can turn the tables, or at least
dramatically slow Climate Change. We
must become one voice, a single, unstoppable force in the fight against climate
deniers. We need to drive the current
movement towards changes in the global economy and energy use to slow…and then
reverse the affect of global warming.
Failure to halt sea level rise will be the end for Miami….thus, failure
cannot be an option….
[Writings from 2016 on Climate Driven Events]
If you scare easily, please don't read this!
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| NOAA map-6' rise in sea level |
Four things I learned, or maybe more accurately, become more conscious of
after attending this panel discussion:
1) That the Coral Gables campus would be seriously threatened along with all
other areas in the Miami-Dade area. Being newly back at the campus, this tie-in
to the rise in sea level hadn't yet become part of my thinking.
2) The Miami-Dade economy is one entity. You can't remove pieces and
still keep the balance of the whole intact. The local economy relies almost
exclusively on local labor and local patronage. If any part of this labor or
patronage were to become threatened it would roll through the rest of the
economy like a tsunami. And like a tsunami, once it starts, it continues until
some natural balance is reached.
3) It will not take a 10' rise in sea level to have a devastating impact
on the area. A 1' rise will flood the most southerly farming areas. 2' will
inundate vast areas southeast of US1 from Cutler Bay to Homestead, Miami Beach
and along the far western portion of the County. A 5' rise will create the
"Miami Peninsula"! Long before the 5' level though: banks will stop
lending to buy homes...people with cash will not want to spend that cash here
any longer...people who don't own homes will begin to move
elsewhere...businesses in affected areas will close...new businesses will stop
forming or moving here...the newly unemployed will stop pumping money into the
other local businesses...non-local businesses may well begin to move operations
and people to other areas of the country. And let's not talk about the affect
on local government tax revenues or their expenses of trying to salvage what
areas they can. And the spiral will have begun....
4) Once the affects become apparent though, it will already be too late
to stop in our lifetime. And a piecemeal approach to solving this pending
crisis will do little to stem the tide without a coordinated overall plan that
addresses all the impacts this will have.
Does this scenario frighten you? Well, it should. However, while this may
sound like a doom-and-gloom story, it's not. What it is meant to be is a
sobering look at the reality of the impact sea level rise will have on this area
and the fact that the only real solution we have is to stop the rise while
there is still time!!
Otherwise there may not be enough sand left in Miami-Dade to bury
your head in.......
